As the Gulf war entered its third week, Israeli planes bombarded Tehran on Friday, while Iran attacked UAE and Kuwait with missiles and drones. The war has now entered a dangerous phase, with both sides targeting oil and gas installations.
On Friday, addressing a press conference, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “you can’t do revolutions from the air…there has to be a ground component as well.. You don’t want to replace one ayatollah with another.”
In other words, he is hinting at the need for US and Israeli forces to put their boots on Iranian soil.
But US President Donald Trump says, he has no such plans. “I’m not putting troops anywhere”, he told a reporter, “If I were, I certainly won’t tell you.” Trump said, the Pentagon has asked Congress to approve a further $200 billion to fund the war.
On Wednesday night, Iran attacked Qatar’s largest natural gas production plant in Ras Laffan with missiles, sending the world into a tizzy.
Qatar is one of the top exporters of LNG and its largest LNG plant is in Ras Laffan. The Iranian attack came after Israel bombed Iran’s largest gas field South Pars, where gas production and supplies have come to a standstill.
Qatar provides 20 per cent of Europe’s gas supplies, while India, China, South Korea, Japan, Italy and Singapore are the top importers of LNG from Qatar.
Iran also targeted oil and gas installations in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. There was mayhem in most of the stock exchanges across the world on Thursday, with BSE Sensex recording the highest decline by nearly 2,500 points in 22 months.
India imports 55 pc of its LNG requirements from abroad, out of which 47 pc comes from Qatar alone. Clouds of recession are now hanging on European countries, while experts fear a brake to economic growth in Asia and Africa.
Iran also attacked Samref oil refinery near Yanbu port on Red Sea in Saudi Arabia. This refinery is vital because much of Saudi oil is being diverted from Strait of Hormuz to Red Sea near this port for export. The Samref oil refinery is run by Saudi oil company Aramco and America’s ExxonMobil. Saudi Arabia has closed production at this refinery after Iranian attack.
Iran also attacked two refineries in Kuwait. Mina Al Ahmadi oil refinery was attacked with an Iranian ballistic missile. This refinery is considered one of the biggest oil refineries in the Middle East. Mina Abdullah oil refinery in Kuwait was also attacked with a drone. After these attacks, Kuwait has stopped production in both these refineries.
The question now is: why does Iran want to prolong the war? Its military and political leadership is almost decimated, and its navy, air force and intelligence system have been smashed. Yet, Iran continues to attack Gulf countries and Israel with missiles and drones.
The probable answer: Iran has nothing more to lose now. It had prepared for a long war for the last several years, it decentralized its IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and these elements are now carrying out missile and drone attacks on Middle East countries.
Now, Gulf countries are putting pressure on the US to put a halt to missile attacks. America wants a ceasefire, but Iran is not willing. Iran wants a permanent solution.
The present Iranian leadership knows, if it agrees to a ceasefire, its enemies will try to regroup again, repair their radars and other air defence systems, and launch fresh attacks on Iran.
Iran wants a solution so that the US and Israel may never attack again. Iran is also trying to revive its economy in the process. It does not want a pre-war status quo for the Strait of Hormuz. It wants a protocol to levy toll charges on every ship passing through the strait.
In a nutshell, Iran is trying to take advantage of the confusion prevailing between the US and Israel. It is therefore ramping up missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries.
Iran did not change its position all of a sudden. It had been preparing since the beginning of Ramadan month and had prepared plans to attack Arab Gulf countries.
The Israeli attack on Iran’s biggest gas field provided the trigger for Iran to launch counter attacks on oil and gas installations in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Iran chose to strike at Qatar’s biggest natural gas hub. It wanted to hit the hardest at this hub, so that the rest of the world can feel the repercussions.
The question also arises: Who is responsible for this crisis?
Iran claims, it is the US that put the world in jeopardy and Donald Trump will have to bear the consequences. On Wednesday, Trump pointed fingers at Israel saying that Israeli attack on Iranian gas field was done without his knowledge.
Trump’s stand is surprising because a day earlier, when Israel attacked South Pars gas field, Trump remained silent. But when Iran carried out reprisal attacks on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE, Trump realized the enormity of this attack and he pointed fingers at Israel.
Trump wrote this on social media, but soon afterwards, Israel and US media nailed his lie. Both said, the attack on Iran’s gas field was done with Trump’s knowledge and Netanyahu had spoken to the US President before the air strike was carried out.
This finger pointing clearly shows there is a trust deficit between the two, and one of these two is misleading the world. Gulf countries had been saying from Day One that Trump attacked Iran at Israel’s instance, but now both are trying to hoodwink the other.
Gulf countries had been dependent on the US for their security since ages, but Iran’s attacks have proved that the US cannot provide blanket security to these countries.
Iran has meanwhile made the Strait of Hormuz its bargaining tool, but European countries are unwilling to help Trump in removing the Iranian blockade of the Strait.
This is one more crack in Trump’s path. All these developments clearly underline the fact that merely threatening Iran will not do. A way must be found out to bring Iran to the negotiating table after declaring a ceasefire.
The flames of fire have already started reaching those countries who have nothing to do with this war.
Get connected on Twitter, Instagram & Facebook