The consequences of Iran’s war with Israel and the US are being felt all over the world. In the international market, crude oil price went up to $114 a barrel, but on Tuesday it came down to $91. Prices of liquified natural gas have almost doubled within a week.
In metros like Bengaluru and Mumbai, several hotels and restaurants have reported shortage of commercial LPG because of disruption in supplies. The Centre has however asked all refiners to ramp up LPG production for domestic use.
In neighbouring Pakistan and Bangladesh, fuel crisis has led to closure of universities and schools. Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif government has declared closure of all schools, drastically cut off fuel consumption by government offices by 50 pc, and ordered four-days-a-week work schedule to conserve fuel.
There is no such fuel crisis presentतब in India. India has sufficient oil reserve and the Centre has said it has no intention to hike up prices of petrol and diesel. Only prices of domestic and commercial LPG have been hiked.
But the question is: what will happen if the war continues for long? Can India protect its consumers from fuel and LPG crisis?
On Monday, Iran declared the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son Mujtaba Khamenei as its supreme leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated him, but US leaders said, Mujtaba may not remain alive for long.
Soon after Mujtaba was declared supreme leader, Iran escalated its missile and drone attacks on Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and UAE.
On Monday night, US President Donald Trump said, Iran war as a “short-term excursion” and it will end very soon.
Trump also claimed that the war was “very complete, pretty much” and is ahead of schedule. This contrasts with what he said a few days ago. Trump had then said the war could last four to five weeks.
Trump however put a rider. He said, ‘We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough”.
He said, the war will end, once Iran no longer has any capacity of weaponry against the US, Israel or its allies in the region for a long time.
The chilling response came from an Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander. He said, Iran will not allow “one litre of oil” to be exported from the region if US-Israeli attacks continue.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement, Iran will “determine the end of the war”.
About Mojtaba Khamenei. The 57-year-old son of late Ayatollah Khamenei has rarely appeared in public, never gave public sermons or interviews.
During the February 28 Israeli attack on Khamenei’s residential campus, Mojtaba’s elder brother and his wife were also killed. It is however a fact that the real power during Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime lay in the hands of his son Mojtaba.
The US and Israel have already said that Mojtaba Khamenei is on their target radar. Mojtaba becoming the supreme leader may cause worries for the US. The US wanted a government in Tehran which could control in the guise of a “friendly government”.
America has its eyes on Iran’s uranium. Both the US and Israel had bombarded three nuclear sites in Iran in the last few days, but experts say that Iran has kept its enriched uranium stock hidden deep inside the ground, which cannot be reached by US or Israeli bombers.
According to one estimate, Iran has nearly 440 kg of enriched uranium which can be used to produce 11 nuclear warheads.
The US wants to install a leader of its choice in Tehran in order to take control of its uranium stock and get it transferred, but the possibilities of such a situation materializing are bleak.
A nationalist government can be formed in Iran, but no government worth its salt in Iran will agree to wind up its nuclear program.
The US is considering landing its marines on Iranian soil to gain control over Iran’s uranium, according to some sources. But the risks are heavy.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps commander Ali Mohammed Naini has claimed that Iran has till now only used its old missiles, which it had produced in the last 10 to 12 years, during ten days of this war.
He claimed, Iran has a huge stock of heavy missiles and drones, which can be used if the war prolongs for at least six months.
The commander said, nobody should dream about Iran surrendering soon, because Iran is yet to pull the trigger on its new heavy missiles that were produced in the last one year.
Now, the question: When will this war end?
Trump had earlier said, the war may continue for 4 to 5 weeks, but in the present situation, it appears the war may continue for a long time.
Israeli bombers have destroyed most of the localities in Tehran into rubble and now oil depots are being bombarded. But looking at the manner in which Iran is raining missiles and drones on UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, the possibilities of the war ending soon appear to be bleak.
If the US thinks that Iran would surrender soon, it is mistaken. By next week, one can firmly say, in which direction this war is headed.