Tariff war : Is China the main culprit ?
The United States has decided to slap an unprecedented 104 per cent tariff on all goods imported from China after President Donald Trump’s 24-hour ultimatum to China to withdraw its retaliatory 34 per cent tariff on US goods ended. Trump, in a post on his social media platform Truth Social, wrote, “China also wants to make a deal, badly, but they don’t know how to get it started. We are waiting for their call.” On Wednesday, China’s top leaders met to decide on measures as the trade war with the US escalated. The question is: Who is responsible for this? China has called on other countries to join hands to fight this tariff war with the US and force America to follow WTO (World Trade Organization) rules. But is Trump solely responsible? The roots lie in China. Trump is right when he says that American manufacturing industry has declined due to China and more than 6 million people have lost their jobs. America had become dependent on China for goods like microchips and semiconductors. It is also a fact that when China applied to join the WTO, the US supported China despite opposition from American trade unions. The then US President Bill Clinton announced China’s membership in WTO and gradually China captured most of the world market. In 2001, when China joined WTO, it was the world’s 7th biggest exporter, but eight years later, in 2009, China became the world’s largest exporter. In 2001, nearly 4 crore ship containers used to leave from China and come back, and this figure rose to 8 crore in 2006 and 13 crore in 2011. China deliberately kept itself in the category of developing nations to corner most of the advantages. China gives big subsidies to its companies while keeping its own market closed to other nations. It refrains from exporting raw materials and parts used for manufacturing electronics and other consumer goods. By doing this, China forces other countries to buy its products and leaves no scope for them to either produce or assemble them in their own country. Using this method, China captured practically the entire world market. The impression today that is being sought to be created is that the US has fired the first shot in the tariff war against China. But if you look at the origins of tariff and trade war, you will find that China is equally responsible for this. No country other than India knows this better. Chinese goods flood Indian markets at cheaper prices and they have caused a huge setback to Indian manufacturing sector. This began 24 years ago, when China became a member of WTO and set the narrative for low-cost manufacturing, setting up huge factories, forcing millions of workers to work at low wages for long hours and then dump these goods on the rest of the world. I remember, in 2003, I was in New York, and in the hotel where I stayed, almost every item was Made in China. China had practically occupied the American market and nobody opposed it at that time. Manufacturing in big countries like India and the US had to face heavy losses because of unfair trade practices by China. On the other hand, China achieved massive growth, but at the cost of fair play. It is unfortunate that nobody in India opposed this. Countries like India quietly followed WTO rules while China continued to damage our economy. At that time, our government was busy glorifying China for its swanky roads and huge factories. In 2014, when Narendra Modi became Prime Minister, questions were raised about China’s unfair trade practices. ‘Make in India’ mission was launched and China was challenged in the area of manufacturing. But most of the countries of the world remained silent. Today, the situation has come to such a pass that China trades with 181 countries of the world, out of which 150 countries are facing trade deficit against China. There are only 43 countries whose trade deficit against China is slightly above 5 per cent. Economies like China, the US, UK, European Union and Mexico are in huge trade deficit against China. While China is responsible for this tariff war, the US and Europe are equally responsible for allowing China to have its way.
Mudra loans : Modi’s silent revolution
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday said self-reliance is the key to India’s endeavour to become a developed country by 2047. During an interaction with Mudra beneficiaries on the occasion of 10th anniversary of this scheme, Modi said, “a silent revolution” named Pradhan Mantra Mudra Yojana was launched in 2015 to provide collateral-free microcredit of up to Rs 10 lakhs to non-corporate, non-farm small and micro-entrepreneurs. In the last ten years, Mudra loans were given to 52 crore beneficiaries and Rs 33.5 lakh crore loan was disbursed. Now, the government has increased the loan limit to Rs 20 lakh under new category ‘Tarun Plus’ for those who availed and repaid previous loans. Modi said, while opposition leaders allege that this is a government for the rich, the fact shows Rs 33 lakh crore were disbursed to small and micro-level entrepreneurs, thus creating job opportunities and helping economic growth. I have myself seen those days when it was impossible for poor people to get loans from banks and they had to take loans from moneylenders at exorbitant rates. Opening bank accounts and disbursing PM Mudra loans without collaterals is nothing short of a revolution. Anybody can change his or her life by taking interest-free loans and start entrepreneurships. This is a silent revolution where the economically weaker sections can prosper and we can reduce our dependence on imports by making products in India. This is nothing short of a “swadeshi revolution” and this was the message that Modi sought to convey.
Mahua Moitra Ko Gussa Kyun Aata Hai?
Internal squabbles among Trinamool Congress MPs came out in the open on Tuesday when BJP IT cell chief Amit Malaviya circulated WhatsApp messages and video showing TMC MPs Kalyan Banerjee, Kirti Azad and Mahua Moitra embroiled in a nasty quarrel. The immediate provocation was the visit of a TMC delegation to meet the Election Commission. At the Nirvachan Sadan, Mahua Moitra and Kalyan Banerjee shouted at each other, and Moitra went to the extent of asking the BSF guards deployed there to come and arrest Kalyan Banerjee. A furious Kalyan Banerjee told mediapersons that he would never tolerate that “rude and uncivilized” lady and would rather quit the party if he was put under pressure. Kalyan Banerjee described Mahua Moitra as “that great international lady”. Banerjee then turned on his guns on fellow MP Saugata Roy for supporting Mahua and reminded him of how he was caught taking money in Narada scam. Roy said, he would speak to party chief Mamata Banerjee and demand that Kalyan Banerjee be removed from the post of chief whip of the parliamentary party. Kalyan Banerjee said, “I will quit politics if Didi (Mamata) tells me that I was wrong”. It is a fact that Mahua Moitra has the knack of getting embroiled in controversies. Kalyan Banerjee is right when he alleges that Mahua only wants to speak against Gautam Adani in Parliament and considers herself above party discipline. Earlier, Mahua was in the headlines because of her quarrels with BJP MP Nishikant Dubey. At that time, Mamata Banerjee had given protection to Mahua Moitra and fielded her again from Bengal for Lok Sabha. But this time, asking BSF jawans to arrest a senior leader of her party in the premises of Election Commission, is an incident in which it will be difficult for Mamata Banerjee to tolerate. For the time being, Mamata Banerjee has directed all her party MPs to remain silent on this issue.
Global tariff war escalates : Investors, be careful
The global tariff war escalated on Tuesday with China threatening to “fight till the end” after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose fresh 50 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, if China did not withdraw its retaliatory tariff of 34 pc. After Monday’s “bloodbath” on stock markets across the globe, Asian stock markets recovered on Tuesday regained only a fraction of previous day’s losses. On Tuesday, China’s commerce ministry said, “The US threat to escalate tariffs against China is a mistake on top of a mistake, and it once again exposes the blackmailing nature of the US”. In Mumbai, both Sensex and NSE made a robust recovery on Tuesday with major shares trading in the green. Yet, clouds of recession loom all over the world. Even people in the US are worried after President Donald Trump’s all-out tariff war. There were rallies in all the states of the US to protest against Trump’s policies to sack government staff and cut expenditure. America under Trump has launched a trade war against the rest of the world. None of the countries want a confrontation with the US, but they are being forced to offer resistance. The prevailing sentiment across the world is that the era of globalization will soon end and the world order will change. These sentiments are affecting the plunge in world stock markets. Indices on stock exchanges rise or fall on the basis of sentiment. China’s retaliation has had its effect. Looking from India’s point of view, two or three points need to be elaborated. One, the commerce ministry has sent five proposals to the ministry of finance to help Indian exporters and has suggested continuance of subsidy schemes along with raising bank credit. Two, India does not want a confrontation with the US on the tariff issue. India’s policy is to get the tariff reduced through bilateral negotiations, but this won’t be easy because Trump has already strengthened his position quite a bit as far as bargaining is concerned. Three, Trump is not going to stop after raising tariff alone. In the coming days, American demands will rise and the pressure will continue on economy and stock markets. India’s main concern is about those sectors where millions of farmers and workers are employed, like textiles, footwear and agriculture. The government of India is trying its best to protect the interests of these farmers and workers. In bilateral talks with the US, India will negotiate for low tariff for these sectors. As far as investors are concerned, there is nothing much to worry. The slump in stock markets will not continue for long. Experts say that there is no need to sell shares because of panic. On the contrary, now is the time to buy shares because of low prices. But it is not necessary to invest all your money in shares. For investors, the advice is on the lines of that famous Hindi movie song: “Ai Bhai Zara Dekh Ke Chalo, Aage Hi Nahin, Peechey Bhi” (Be careful).
Bengal teachers : Can Mamata give jobs back?
The Supreme Court on Tuesday set aside the order of Calcutta High Court directing the CBI to probe the role of officials involved in creating ‘supernumerary’ posts of 6, 861 teachers and non-teaching staff in state-run and government aided schools. A “supernumerary post” refers to a temporary position created to accommodate an employee who is entitled to a regular post that is currently unavailable. A bench comprising Chief Justice Sanjiv Khanna and Justice Sanjay Kumar, however, made it clear that the probe into other aspects related to appointment of 25,753 teachers and staffers in West Bengal’s state-run and aided school would continue. The apex court on April 3 had invalidated the appointment of 25,753 teachers and staffers, terming the entire selection process as “vitiated and tainted”. On Monday, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, while addressing teachers in Netaji Subhas Indoor Stadium, said, she would “rather go to jail but will not implement the Supreme Court verdict”. With assembly elections scheduled next year, Mamata Banerjee said, “as far as I am alive, no capable teacher will lose job”. She alleged that the image of her government was being deliberately tarnished in view of forthcoming elections. Mamata Banerjee said, she had “Plan A, Plan B and Plan C ready” for teachers even if she was forced to implement the court verdict. She told the teachers to carry on with their work till the Supreme Court notice comes, and if the court refuses job to them, she would arrange two months’ job for them. It is a fact that Mamata Banerjee’s woes would increase with the Supreme Court verdict. Already, her minister is in jail and teachers are on the streets, but Mamata is trying to give a political colour to the court verdict. She is saying that she would not accept the verdict and stand with the teachers. This could be a political compulsion. There is no other option left for her. The teachers realize this and most of them have started losing trust in Mamata’s promise. With Mamata claiming that no capable candidate will lose job till she is alive, teachers are asking this question: Once the Supreme Court verdict comes, how will she give them jobs? Mamata has no answer.
Hyderabad : Was Revanth Reddy misled?
Telangana chief minister A. Revanth Reddy’s government has come under attacks from all sides, judiciary, Centre, environmentalists, students, academics, opposition parties and film fraternity, for its decision to auction 400 acres of disputed land at Kancha Gachibowli in Rangareddy district adjoining the University of Hyderabad. The Supreme Court has suo motu taken cognisance of reports of extensive deforestation in the disputed land affecting wildlife and water bodies by deploying heavy machinery. The apex court has directed Telangana chief secretary to immediately stop all activity in the area, till proper environmental impact assessment is done and necessary approvals are obtained. Meanwhile, Telangana high court has extended a stay on all kinds of activity on the disputed land, following PILs filed by an NGO and University of Hyderabad students’ union. The Ministry of Environment has sought a detailed report on deforestation on 400 acres land from the state government’s forest secretary. The moot question is: trees on 400 acre of forest land were cut in the name of development. Nobody can justify this. Experts say, there are 75 species of plants and 233 species of animals and birds in this forest. Several endangered animals and birds are found in this forest. This forest provides valuable oxygen to the people of Hyderabad. If this forest is lost, Hyderabad and its surrounding areas will fact tremendous heat during summer with a possible rise by 3 degrees Celsius. Probably, this was the reason why Supreme Court put a halt to deforestation on this land. Chief Minister Revanth Reddy is unable to give clear replies to charges as to why bulldozers were used at midnight to raze the forest. If the land was required for development, it could have been done during daytime.
Trump’s tariff : challenge or opportunity?
The US stock market crashed on Thursday after President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs raised fears of an all-out trade war across the world and a looming global economic recession. The Wall Street benchmark indices ended with the largest single-day percentage losses since 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed 1,679 points or 3.98 per cent, while S&P 500 fell by 275 points or 4.84 per cent. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 1050 points or 5.97 per cent lower. Chinese commerce ministry demanded that the US must withdraw 34 per cent additional tariff and threatened to initiate countermeasures. After Trump imposed 26 per cent tariff on India, the Commerce Ministry in a guarded statement said, it is in close touch with industry and exporters, and it is assessing the situation while taking feedback from stakeholders. Indian goods imported by the US will now become costlier. This could result in lesser demand from the US and lesser exports to America. But the positive sign is that huge tariff has been slapped by Trump on countries which are our competitors in export. This could result in rise in export of Indian textiles and electronic goods, because high tariffs on China, Thailand and Bangladesh could give advantage to India in trade with US. Machinery, toys, automobiles are areas where India may increase its production and export to the US. India has got a good opportunity, but to achieve that, India will have to concentrate more on ‘ease of doing business’ and strengthen its logistics and infrastructure. Trump’s tariff can have negative effect on our textile, diamond, automobile and steel sectors, but he has spared India’s pharmaceutical, semiconductor, copper and some energy sectors like oil, LNG and coal.
Waqf Bill : Now it’s a law for all
Parliament has put its seal of approval on the Waqf Amendment Bill, with Rajya Sabha, in a late-night sitting, passing the Bill with 128 votes in favour and 95 votes against. The Bill will become law after the President’s assent. Meanwhile, Congress, other opposition parties and Islamic clerics have threatened to challenge the law in court. There was tight security in several cities across states in view of Friday prayers. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his tweet, described the passage of the Bill as “a historic moment” and hoped that this would bring transparency and accountability in the management of Waqf properties. The biggest challenge in getting the Bill passed was on the issue of getting support from BJP’s allies Janata Dal(U) and Telugu Desam Party. Both these parties were shown the bogey of losing crucial support of Muslim votes. But both Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar understood the mood of the nation and extended support to the Bill. One consequence of this will be that no opposition leader will now question the stability of Modi government. The passage of this Bill will also have consequences on elections in Bihar and West Bengal. For Mamata Banerjee, Muslim support is essential. She has promised Muslims that the day would come when this Bill would be repealed. This could be her line of thought and there should be no problems if Islamic clerics stage protests on the streets. The problem is, when some people say that even after Parliament passes the bill and if Supreme Court upholds its validity, they would not accept this law. Those who oppose rule of law, Parliament and Constitution, deserve to be punished.
SC verdict : A big setback for Mamata
In a major setback for Mamata Banerjee’s government, the Supreme Court has concurred with the Calcutta High Court’s decision to cancel the recruitment of over 25,700 teachers and non-teaching staff, done in 2016. While dismissing the appeals of West Bengal government and West Bengal School Service Commission and 125 successful candidates, the bench of Chief Justice Sanjiv Khanna and Justice Sanjay Kumar said, the entire selection process “has been vitiated and tainted beyond resolution”. The apex court said, “manipulations and frauds on a large scale, coupled with attempted cover-up, have dented the process.” Reacting to the verdict, Mamata Banerjee said, she does not agree with the apex court’s ruling and if more than 25,000 teachers are removed from their jobs, it would adversely affect the education system. “Who will then take the responsibility?”, she asked. Mamata Banerjee said, ” those who indulged in the scam are in jail, but it is not correct to punish all because of the crime of a single person.” I am surprised to find Mamata Banerjee refusing the accept the Supreme Court verdict. This is not the first time that the apex court has cancelled appointments by a state government. The apex court has clearly said there was large-scale cheating and fraud in the selection process. What will happen to those who were selected through this dishonest process? They will lose their jobs. Similar things have happened in the past. Frauds take place due to political connivance. But ultimately the losers are those poor people who lose their jobs. This should stop.