Trump in power : India must recast its strategy to deal with the US
US President Donald Trump began his second term with a bang by signing a slew of sweeping executive orders. The orders ranged from ending birthright citizenship to withdrawing the US from WHO and Paris Climate Accord. Within a span of two hours, he signed more than a hundred executive orders, each of them surprising. The rest of the world is studying the implications of his orders. Soon after Trump reached his Oval Office, the US National Guards was deployed on Mexican border to stop illegal immigration.
Trump has said that the largest deportation program in US history would begin, and illegal infiltrators would be sent back to their countries of origin. According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration has prepared a list of nearly 18,000 Indians to be deported in the first phase.
Trump signed an order declaring that granting of automatic US citizenship to children born on American soil will be discontinued. Future children born to undocumented immigrants would no longer be treated as citizens. The order would extend even to the children of mothers staying in the US legally but temporarily, such as foreign students or tourists.
Several US lawmakers of Indian American origin have decided to challenge this order. “Trump’s order removes birthright citizenship for children born in the U.S. not just to undocumented parents but to ‘lawful’ immigrants who are temporarily on a student visa, H1B/H2B visa, or business visa”, said US Congressman Ro Khanna.
Trump signed orders directing resumption of oil and natural gas production in Alaska, imposing 25 pc tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting February 1, renaming Gulf of Mexico as Gulf of America, declaring national emergency on Mexican border, halting federal government hiring except for military, declaring that the federal government shall recognize only two biological sex, male and female, rolling back transgender protections, pardoned 1,500 persons convicted or charged in the attack on US Capitol on Jan 6, 2021, and keeping TikTok operating for 75 days.
Immediately after Trump signed the orders, border immigration and customs check posts near Mexican border stopped working and the National Guards took up positions on the border. Thousands of people waiting for entry into the US were stranded, despite having prior appointments with US Immigration authorities. The CBP One app that helped in appointments and checking of documents, stopped working.
Donald Trump has shown that he is going to implement all his electoral promises. No other US President in the past had signed more than 100 executive orders on the first day in office. What Trump has done is unprecedented.
I watched Trump speaking at his inauguration ceremony on Monday night. The tenor of his speech clearly indicated that he is out to create ripples across the world. The manner in which he criticized the outgoing administration, with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris sitting and watching, was surprising. As Trump was lambasting the outgoing administration for, what he said, “a horrible betrayal” and for running “a radical and corrupt establishment”, the faces of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton were worth watching.
For Trump, deporting more than a crore illegal immigrants will be a Herculean task. This has been America’s problem for the last several years, but no US President summoned the courage and tenacity to throw them out. To identify a crore illegal immigrants and deport them is a challenging one. But, when Trump makes up his mind, he does not mind and nothing can stop him.
The other significant steps that Trump took related to trade, commerce and business. Trump administration’s decision will have implications for most of the countries of the world. China may have to bear the major brunt. Trump has eyed all those business sectors which are presently under Chinese dominance. During his campaign, Trump had promised to regain America’s past glory in business and end China’s dominance. He has already started working from Day One.
India will have to be recast its strategy for dealing with Trump’s new immigration and trade policies. India is today one of the fastest growing economies of the world. Each trade related decision by the US can affect Indian industry. The implications will be known as the picture becomes clearer.
Trump, Modi, India and Neighbours !
In the midst of euphoria over the historic comeback of Donald Trump as 47th President of the United States, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after posting his congratulatory tweet to “my dear friend”, telephoned to greet him on his victory. During the conversation, Donald Trump, according to sources, repeatedly described India as a “magnificent country” and Modi as “a magnificent leader whom much of the world loves”. Trump described the conversation as among the first he had with a head of government after his victory. The question is: what will be the implications on India and her neighbours after a regime change in the White House? Will the Modi-Trump personal chemistry work towards strengthening bilateral relations? Trump is known as a hard bargainer and a sharp businessman. Will it affect India-US trade ties? Trump is a hawk on the issue of immigrant policies. Will it make U.S. visa rules tougher?
Trump’s victory vis-a-vis India can be seen from two angles:
One, his personal friendship with Narendra Modi. Both know each other very well. Trump follows a personalized style in diplomacy and on many occasions, he has described Modi as his friend and a strong leader. This is going to benefit India. Two, India’s diplomacy requirements. China has been posing a challenge to India in the last one decade, and Trump’s friendship with Modi will have its effect here too. Justin Trudeau in Canada has become a headache for India because of his overt support to Khalistani separatists and the outgoing Biden administration had been extending support to Trudeau. These equations are going to change and India will emerge stronger.
BANGLADESH
Trump’s recent statement about atrocities being perpetrated on Hindus in Bangladesh has been widely welcomed in India. On Diwali Festival (October 31), five days before voting, Trump wrote on X: “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians and other minorities, who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos. It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America….We will also protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left. We will fight for your freedom…”. No American President in the last two centuries had ever said that he was a true friend of Hindus in the White House. The impact will surely be seen. Trump’s victory will affect both Pakistan and Bangladesh. Already, there are some straws in the wind. Deposed Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, staying in exile in India, sent a message of congratulation, as head of Awami League, to Donald Trump, in which she said, she was willing to work with him for improving bilateral relations. The present interim government in Bangladesh is headed by economist Mohammed Yunus, considered to be close to the Clinton family. There are reports that Sheikh Hasina’s government was deposed by him with help from Biden administration.
PAKISTAN
As far as Pakistan is concerned, jailed former PM Imran Khan’s supporters are ecstatic over Trump’s victory and are already celebrating. They are optimistic about Imran’s early release from jail after pressure from Trump administration. But one must remember, it was Trump who, with Imran Khan sitting by his side, had said, Pakistan was sheltering terrorists and he would finish off their bases. It was Trump who had put a brake on 24 billion US dollars assistance to Pakistan.
CHINA
India’s third and biggest neighbour China is already worried after Trump’s win. During his earlier tenure, Trump had unleashed a trade war against China, and imposed heavy tariff on Chinese goods. He had toughened scrutiny of most of the Chinese companies, and this had affected US-China business. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said, “we respect the choice of the American people…China will work with the US on the basis of mutual respect”.
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST
European leaders have adopted a line of caution after Trump’s win, given his known stand that European countries must bear their security costs themselves. Trump’s win will have immediate repercussions on the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, in which the US have been providing finance and military aid to Ukraine. The strategic equations in Europe may undergo a reset. The Kremlin has said, “let’s see” if Trump’s win can end the Ukraine war. On Iran, Trump has always followed a tough policy. He had exited from US nuclear deal with Tehran. This time conflicts are going on in Gaza and Lebanon and Trump’s policies will be interesting to note. One must bear in mind what External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said about war. Jaishankar said, he does not think the US would like to be part of any war now. The reverse will be the case and Trump may chose to withdraw US troops and armaments from most of the conflict zones. Jaishankar has said that this withdrawal from conflict zones had already begun since the time Barack Obama was president. Joe Biden withdrew US troops from Afghanistan, and Trump has already said that US will not join any war.