My Opinion

On Tuesday, Congress President Rahul Gandhi told mediapersons outside Parliament that the Gujarat polls have delivered BJP a ‘zabardast jhatka’ (strong shock), and the BJP promptly responded to say that Rahul was enjoying ‘defeat as victory’. It also came to light that on Monday evening when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was addressing party workers after the twin victories in Gujarat and HP, Rahul Gandhi took time off to watch a Hollywood film at a cinema hall in Delhi. Rahul may have wanted to freshen up and seek relief from the hurly-burly world of politics, but when he will sit with his party leaders soon to analyze the Gujarat results, he may be shocked to find some harsh facts.

Rahul may notice that the BJP lost in those areas, where neither GST nor the Gujarat model were important issues. The farmers in the rural areas of Saurashtra belt voted against BJP because of low prices of cotton and groundnut. Rahul may also notice that in cities like Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot, where GST was the burning issue among traders, the Congress fared badly. In Patidar-dominated areas too, the Congress lost and the BJP performed better.

In his speeches, Rahul incessantly attacked Modi’s Gujarat model, but 49 per cent of voters in Gujarat voted for Modi. The Gujarat poll results will also serve as a wake-up call, a warning from the voters, for BJP, which has to tackle the agrarian distress in rural areas on a war footing.

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Dislodged from power for the last 22 years in Gujarat, the Congress leadership had pinned its hopes this time on voters’ unhappiness with the BJP. Rahul Gandhi showed up in his new avatar this time during the campaign and the media lapped it up to say that Rahul was giving a tough challenge to Modi in the latter’s home turf, but the final results have dashed the hopes of Congress leaders. Also dashed were the hopes of Modi’s other political opponents like Lalu Prasad and Mamata Banerjee, who had calculated that the 2019 LS battle would have been easier if the BJP was dislodged from its Gujarat citadel.

Who else could have understood this game better than Narendra Modi? The victory in Gujarat reinforces the trust people had in Modi’s leadership, and the hopes of Modi’s opponents have been dashed. There will be fresh efforts now to prop up an anti-Modi political front, but this is not easy. Because if Congress joins this front, questions would be raised about the leadership abilities of party chief Rahul Gandhi, and Congress would be loath to face such questions.

The Congress should learn some lessons from its failed Gujarat experiment. Rahul Gandhi should have trusted old Congress leaders instead of his young, immature associates. This could have changed the entire picture. Rahul felt that the young trio – Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakor – would help his party get a majority. Because of this wrong calculation, Rahul ignored and sidelined Shankarsingh Vaghela. 14 MLAs left the Congress and joined BJP, and this harmed the party at the hustings. It’s true, Vaghela failed to provide a strong political alternative, but he succeeded in preventing the Congress to appear as a forceful alternative. Had Vaghela been in the Congress, the results could have been different.

The results prove one thing. That, Modi knows the pulse of the voters of Gujarat, and that, the people of his state love him. That is why when Modi made emotional appeals to touch the chords of the hearts of the voters, the message went through. The results of the second phase of voting are there for all to see. Modi’s magic worked, and the way was cleared for the BJP for a sixth successive term. And the credit for all this rightly goes to Modi.

There are lessons to be learnt by the BJP too. The party fared well in the urban centres, but if it had performed well in rural areas, it could have been a landslide. There seems to be lack of enthusiasm for the BJP in rural areas because the farmers are in distress and unhappy, and the party will have to work towards that end.

It is true traders in Surat, Rajkot, Ahmedabad and Vadodara were angry over the implementation of GST. The traders, who were traditional supporters of BJP, felt that the party had brought their thriving trade to a halt. Rahul Gandhi sniffed an opportunity and he derided GST as Gabbar Singh Tax. He assumed that the traders’ community would support the Congress this time, but Modi took up the issue at the right time. Modi is a politician who personally knows many of the businessmen in Gujarat by name. He sent Arun Jaitley and Amit Shah to talk to the traders, and all their grievances over GST were addressed, both by Jaitley and Amit Shah. That is why, there are seats in Surat, where the BJP candidates won by huge margins. The Congress leaders and Rahul Gandhi are now scratching their heads after the results.

Patidar movement leader Hardik Patel faced the biggest disappointment from the results. There were huge gatherings at his rallies, he worked on the emotions of people, and went to the extent of saying that ‘even if my parents contest on BJP ticket, do not vote for them, and support the Congress’, but Patidar voters did not listen to his emotional appeals. They voted for BJP. The Patidars were, of course, angry with the BJP, but they preferred not to vote for the Congress. You will be surprised to know that in as many as 29 constituencies, the number of NOTA (none of the above) votes was higher than the victory margin. It worked both ways. BJP won 15, the Congress 13 and one Independent won because of NOTA. Nearly 5.5 lakhs voters in Gujarat pressed the NOTA button. This amounted to roughly 1.8 per cent of the total votes polled.

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On Friday, the Union Cabinet approved the bill to ban Triple Talaq among Muslims. While Muslim women have welcomed this bill, several Maulanas and Muslim leaders have opposed this, saying the government must not interfere in Muslim personal law. Among Islamic scholars, the respected Shia scholar Maulana Kalbe Jawwad is a notable exception. He has said that Triple Talaq is anathema to the tenets of Holy Quran. There are 16 Islamic countries in the world which have declared Triple Talaq as illegal. These include Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Morocco, Sudan and UAE. In that case, how can Triple Talaq be legal in India? The Maulanas have been saying that the community should be left on its own to eradicate this social evil. But has anything been done in the last several decades? Muslim women deserve the right to be treated as equal. Why should they live in perennial fear of Triple Talaq? Why should a man utter Triple Talaq just because his wife has not cooked to his satisfaction, or has not washed clothes properly? In some cases, Muslim women as old as 70 years have been given Triple Talaq. Why should Muslim women suffer in a world which is witnessing the 21st century? The Union Cabinet approved this bill only after the Supreme Court in its landmark judgement asked the government to enact such a law. How can this be termed as interference in religious matters? One should welcome this bill, and the sooner it is enacted, the better.

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The results of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly polls will be out on December 18. As of now, all exit polls conducted by media houses predict BJP will retain Gujarat and storm back to power in HP. If the exit poll projections are proved true, all the credit will go to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Congress had been saying that the people of Gujarat are unhappy with BJP, but if the exit poll projections are proved true, it will reaffirm people’s trust in Modi’s leadership.

It is true that Rahul Gandhi toiled very hard this time in Gujarat. He tried to reset caste calculations, allied with young emerging leaders like Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakore, made changes in ticket distribution on their advice, went to at least 28 temples, and did not speak about Muslims. Initially, it appeared that Rahul’s toil was bearing fruit, and Patidars’ anger could harm BJP, but in the final lap of campaigning, it was Modi who changed the atmosphere. He made the entire poll campaign Modi-centric and issued emotional appeals to the people of Gujarat. The exit poll projections show this seems to have worked. Let keep our fingers crossed for the day of counting.

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On Wednesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while addressing a FICCI meeting, launched an attack on the UPA government over bad loans, calling it the “biggest scam” of the previous government and blamed it for putting pressure on banks to lend to select corporates. Modi alleged, banks were pressurized to give loans to a select few industrialists, and this scam was bigger than the coal and 2G scams.

The Prime Minister also scotched rumours being spread about bank deposits because of the proposed FRDI (Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance) bill, which will be brought before Parliament in the forthcoming winter session. Indian banks are struggling with nearly Rs 7 lakh crore of non-performing loans and Modi said, the non-performing assets of banks were the biggest liability handed down by economists sitting in the previous regime, because of which banks are unable to lend money to create new jobs.

Modi explained that the FRDI bill, presently before the select committee of Parliament, is aimed at quick resolution of non-performing assets of banks. He assured depositors that their money was safe in banks and there was no need to believe rumours that are being spread about the bill. Two days ago, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had also explained that the FRDI bill was meant to make bank deposits more secure, and if the banks ever fail, the bill was meant to provide more compensation than the present limit of Rs 1 lakh that is legally permissible. Congress leaders like Anand Sharma have been posing questions based on such rumours, and one should be aware about the sources which are trying to create unnecessary panic among bank depositors.
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On Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi were to take out roadshows in Ahmedabad, but the local police refused to give them permission citing security reasons. While Rahul Gandhi addressed a press conference, Prime Minister Modi took an eight-seater seaplane ride from Ahmedabad Sabarmati riverfront to Dharoi dam in Mehsana to offer prayers at Ambaji temple. Thousands of people watched the seaplane take off and land.

Modi always thinks originally, has innovative ideas and implements them suddenly. When denied a roadshow, the Prime Minister opted for an airshow to the delight of his fans and supporters. With the seaplane ride, Modi also sent a ‘vikas’ message to his voters. He said, government would promote seaplane service for 108 waterways across the country. The basic difference between Modi and Rahul is that while the former always comes out with new, innovative ideas, the latter repeats the same issues every day in a monotonous tone. There was nothing new in the issues that Rahul Gandhi raised in his press conference on Tuesday.

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At a time when India is fighting a proxy war carried out by Pakistan in Kashmir, senior leaders of the Congress attended a dinner hosted by party leader Mani Shankar Aiyar in which former Pakistan Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri and the Pakistani High Commissioner Sohail Mahmood participated. At the dinner, according to Dr Manmohan Singh, India-Pakistan relations were discussed, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi has alleged that the Gujarat election prospects also formed part of the discussion. In a statement on Monday, former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh demanded an apology from the Prime Minister alleging that “falsehoods and canards” were spread against him about these discussions.

India’s policy towards Pakistan does not belong to one party or one government. The policy reflects the overall mood and sense of the nation. The former Prime Minister and the former Vice-President are responsible dignitaries. Nobody objects if they attend Mani Shankar Aiyar’s dinner, meet Pakistani leaders and officials and return. But the matter does not end here. Issues connected to foreign policy, India-Pakistan relations and Gujarat were discussed at the dinner. One expects experienced administrators like Dr Singh and Hamid Ansari to avoid getting caught in such a trap, and if they unintentionally fell into the trap, they should admit the same.

The question also arises whether Prime Minister Modi should have made such allegations during the Gujarat poll campaign, but the answer lies with Mani Shankar Aiyar, who gifted this issue on a platter to Modi on the eve of polling.

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On Friday as Prime Minister Narendra Modi reeled out names of Congress leaders who had hurled abuses at him in the past, the main rival party appeared to be on the defensive. Right from the time when Sonia Gandhi used the phrase ‘maut ke saudagar’ to the ‘khoon ki dalali’ remark by Rahul Gandhi, Modi read out names of almost all senior Congress leaders who had hurled abuses at him.

Never in the past were such remarks made against a single individual who rose from a ‘chaiwala’ to the exalted post of Prime Minister of India. With Modi adopting an aggressive stance on the eve of Gujarat polling, the Congress leadership has asked its leaders not to react to Modi’s speeches. Congress leaders may well question why the BJP did not take action against its own leaders who had hurled abuses at Sonia and Rahul Gandhi in the past. All in all, people expect their leaders to exercise restraint while making remarks about their rivals.’

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Listening to Mani Shankar Aiyar’s atrocious remarks, I sometimes wonder whether he is in the Congress or with the BJP. Before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Aiyar had made the ‘chaiwala’ remark for Narendra Modi, and the BJP went to town over it. Everybody knows the result. The day Rahul Gandhi filed his nomination for Congress President, Aiyar told the media that dynastic succession was there since the Mughal period. Aiyar mentioned the names of Jehangir, Shah Jahan and Aurangzeb. On Thursday, Aiyar used the “neech” word for Modi. When Prime Minister Modi raised this issue at an election rally in Gujarat, Aiyar was forced to apologise, but he gave a lame defence that he did not know the exact Hindi word for ‘low’. But in doing so, he reminded how he used the word ‘naalayak’ for Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The Congress leadership did the right thing in first asking him to apologize, and later suspending him from the primary membership of the party. Had the party taken such a step against Aiyar for his ‘chaiwala’ remark during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, or when he described Vajpayee as ‘naalayak’, the situation would not have arisen now. It is also true that had there been no Gujarat elections at this point in time, Rahul Gandhi would not have asked Aiyar to apologize, nor he would have been suspended from the party.

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On Wednesday, the UP Sunni Central Waqf Board officially dissociated itself from lawyer Kapil Sibal’s stand in Supreme Court that the hearing on Ayodhya issue should be deferred till 2019. The Board chairman Zufar Ahmed Farooqi clarified that Sibal was not the advocate for the board, which is the original litigant in the title suit, and that he was representing one of the private parties involved in the suit. The Board also clarified that it wanted the Ayodhya case to be decided at the earliest, and that other litigants from the Muslim side, too, supported the board’s view.

Earlier in the day, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi while addressing an election rally in Gujarat, congratulated the Sunni Waqf Board for dissociating itself from Sibal’s statement on Ayodhya, and lashed out at Sibal for politicizing this sensitive issue.

The question now is under whose pressure did Kapil Sibal tell the Supreme Court that he wanted the hearing to be deferred till 2019? Since the Muslim side has made its stand clear that it wants an early hearing, Sibal’s motive seems to be clear. Sibal was making this demand because of political reasons. Since the election campaign in Gujarat is in full swing, the Ram temple issue is connected with the feelings of the voters in the state. BJP has now raised this issue in order to corner its main rival Congress. Clearly, Sibal alone is responsible for creating this mess for his own party.

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New Delhi, December 6: The BJP in Gujarat is projected to get a record sixth consecutive term in Gujarat with the latest India TV-VMR (Votersmood Research)  Final Opinion Poll predicting a clear majority for the ruling party in the forthcoming assembly polls.

The opinion poll projects BJP to win 111 out of a total of 182 assembly seats, while the main rival Congress is projected to win 68 seats, with three remaining seats going to ‘Others’.

BJP is expected to get seats within a range of 106-116, while Congress is expected to get seats within a range of 63-73, says the IndiaTV-VMR opinion poll. Vote percentage wise, BJP is projected to get 45 per cent, Congress 40 per cent and ‘Others’ 15 per cent, according to the opinion poll.

In the 2012 Gujarat assembly elections, the BJP had won 116 seats, the Congress 60 and ‘Others’ six seats.

According to Votersmood Research (VMR), the agency that conducted the opinion poll, a total of 6,000 interviews were conducted in 684 polling booths across all four socio-economic regions of Gujarat.

The eligible voters covering all age groups, gender and rural-urban divide were conducted house-to-house and face-to-face. The opinion poll was conducted from November 23 to 30, and an error margin of plus/minus 3 per cent has been kept.

Regionwise, the BJP is projected to win 32 seats (30-34 range) in North Gujarat, 29 seats (27-31 range) in Kutch-Saurashtra, 25 seats (23-27 range) in Central Gujarat, and 25 seats (23-27 range) in South Gujarat, making a total of 111 seats, says the opinion poll.

The Congress is projected to win 25 seats (23-27 range) in Kutch-Saurashtra, 20 seats (18-22 range) in North Gujarat, 15 seats (13-17 range) in Central Gujarat, and only 8 seats (6-10 range) in South Gujarat, making it a total of 68 seats. ‘Others’ are projected to win two seats in South Gujarat, and one seat in North Gujarat.

Voteshare wise, the BJP is projected to get 46 per cent each in South Gujarat and Central Gujarat, 45 pc in North Gujarat and 44 pc in Kutch-Saurashtra. The main rival Congress is projected to get 42 pc in North Gujarat, 41 pc in Kutch-Saurashtra, 40 pc in Central Gujarat and 39 pc in South Gujarat.

The Congress is projected to get a 4 per cent positive swing in Kutch-Saurashtra, while the BJP is projected to suffer a 6 pc negative swing in South Gujarat and 4 pc negative swing in North Gujarat.

For Opinion Poll details, pl contact Anita Sharma, Managing Editor, India TV on +91 98111 99344