If Maharashtra was lost because of voters’ list, what about Delhi?
A day before BJP swept to power in Delhi after 27 years after getting an emphatic mandate in the assembly elections, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was in Mumbai, where he demanded that the Election Commission must have over to his party detailed list of voters of the 2024 Lok Sabha and assembly polls in Maharashtra.
Rahul Gandhi, along with NCP (Sharad) leader Supriya Sule and Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut addressed a joint press conference where he alleged that 39 lakh voters were added during the five-month period between the Lok Sabha and assembly polls in the state. Rahul Gandhi said, on the contrary, only 32 lakh voters were handed during the five years period from 2019 to 2024.
Rahul Gandhi claimed that the adult population in Maharashtra was 9.54 crore, as per government data, but the number of voters is 9.7 crore. “We want to know who are these new voters?”, Rahul Gandhi asked.
Sanjay Raut alleged that BJP has invented a new formula to win elections with the help of Election Commission. He said, the 39 lakh new voters in Maharashtra will now be added to the Bihar voter lists, since Bihar would be going to elections towards the end of this year.
“This is the floating voter, who move from one state to another, where elections are held. BJP wins elections with the help of these floating voters”, Raut said.
Supriya Sule demanded paper ballots to replace EVMs. She alleged that the EC never listens to opposition parties’ demand for repoll, nor listen to their demand for change in poll symbols. “The EC never replies to our complaints. If you want to save democracy, the EC must reply to all our queries”, she said.
The fact is, Rahul Gandhi never sticks to figures whenever he makes allegations. In the last three weeks, he had raised the allegation of malpractices in electoral lists at least thrice. Every time, he changes his figures.
On January 18, while addressing a rally in Patna, Rahul Gandhi said, the number of voters in Maharashtra rose by one crore in the last five months. On February 3, while speaking in Lok Sabha, he put this figure at 70 lakhs. On Friday, he said the figure was 39 lakhs. It is now difficult for anybody to decide which figure could be correct.
The Election Commission on Friday said, it would respond to Rahul Gandhi’s charges with full facts and figures. In a tweet on X, Election Commission said, it “would respond in writing with full factual and procedures matrix uniformly adopted across” India.
Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis said, since Congress is going to be decimated again in Delhi elections, Rahul Gandhi is trying to prepare a ground for giving excuses for his party’s impending defeat.
Fadnavis said, “it would be better if Rahul Gandhi introspects, otherwise the Congress party is bound to sink”.
Deputy CM Eknath Shinde said, the defeat in Maharashtra assembly polls has acted as an electric shock for Maha Vikas Aghadi and Rahul Gandhi is unable to reconcile with reality. “He is only making excuses. It will be better if Rahul Gandhi forgets the past and prepare for fresh elections”, Shinde said.
Maharashtra minister Nitesh Rane compared Rahul, Sanjay Raut and Supriya Sule with the “3 idiots”. He said, “earlier Congress and its allies used to get en bloc Muslim votes and the Hindu votes used to be divided. This time Hindus voted unitedly and MVA got a shock. If Rahul and Supriya Sule have problems with EVMs, they should first resign from Parliament and tell the people that they do not want to remain MP by becoming elected on the basis of EVMs.”
I think, Rahul Gandhi sometimes speaks whatever is given to him in writing. He does not do research on his own. I have seen the Election Commission figures. The Congress was in power in 2009. From 2009 to 2014, 75 lakh new voters were added in Maharashtra electoral lists. From 2014 to 2019 assembly elections, 63.1 lakh new voters were added. From 2019 to 2024, 71.84 lakh voters were added.
The pattern is the same. I have given here the figures. It is for the people to decide whether the charges of manipulation in electoral rolls can stand close scrutiny.
Rahul’s ‘fight against Indian State’ : Real target is Modi
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has done it again. Two of his gaffes on Wednesday embarrassed the country’s oldest political party. His first gaffe: Rahul said, “Congress is not only fighting BJP, RSS, it is also fighting the Indian State”. His second gaffe: RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat “has the audacity” to say that India did not get real freedom in 1947. Congress leaders were quick to defend Rahul by explaining the true definite of ‘Indian State’. By that time, the arrow had left the bow and BJP grabbed the opportunity with both hands.
BJP chief J. P. Nadda said, it is now clear that Rahul Gandhi has openly admitted that he hates India and that he openly supports anarchy, like the ‘Urban Naxals’. Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said: “How can he say, his party is fighting the Indian State? Either it’s derailment of his mental coordinates or it is the George Soros toolkit. But how can any Indian say that he is against the Indian State? I think the several times re-launched leader, young at the age of 54, needs to do some serious introspection.”
BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad said, “I pity Rahul Gandhi. He neither understands India, nor the Constitution. His tutors seem to be Maoists and Rahul is speaking the language of Maoists”.
The occasion was the inauguration of the new national headquarters of Indian National Congress. The party has now shifted from a government bungalow to a newly built building complex. Congress leaders clapped when Rahul spoke, but later several of them realized the gaffe and they started defending Rahul.
I think the sole intent of Rahul Gandhi’s remarks was to target Narendra Modi. He is unable to accept the fact that Modi has become the Prime Minister for the third time. During the last ten years, Rahul tried all the means at his disposal to defeat Modi.
Firstly, he tried to go solo, undertook padyatra, and then assembled all anti-Modi parties on a single platform. He launched video wars, but could not succeed. Rahul also instigated farmers, supported the ‘tukde-tukde’ gang, levelled corruption charges in Rafale deal, but he could not stop Modi from winning.
In the second round, Rahul took help on foreign soil from those running anti-India campaign, and tried to corner Dalit votes by raising his voice in support of Ambedkar, reservation and Constitution. Yet, Modi won again.
The reason why Rahul could not succeed is: he is unable to understand Modi thoroughly. Rahul is on his one-track spree, and he refuses to watch the direction in which Modi is moving. Rahul Gandhi is now convinced that Modi wins elections because he has the Election Commission and judiciary under his control and that Modi strikes fear among politicians by misusing ED. Rahul believes that the media is under Modi’s control. But he is badly mistaken. No single person or party can control all these institutions, forget occupying them and winning elections.
If Modi won elections, it was because of his zeal and toil. Modi toils round the clock in politics. He has the capability to toil for his party. Modi’s government has worked superbly in the last ten years. I need not recount them here. Modi himself narrates them in most of his speeches.
On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi and his associates are so deeply entrenched in their opposition to Modi that they are unwilling to listen to anything else. To quote a proverb, they are hunting for a black cat inside a dark room. The fact is: the black cat is not there inside the room.
Kissa Kursi Ka : Note For Vote
On Christmas, Aam Aadmi Party shared an AI-generated video on social media showing its convenor Arvind Kejriwal dressed as Santa Claus ‘distributing’ welfare gifts. The caption read: “Delhi’s own Santa delivering gifts year-round”. The video showed a a government school in delhi and the AAP chief gifting a box to a woman with Rs 2,100 written on it. But Kejriwal had to face a bizarre twist. Delhi government’s Department of Women and Child Development and Health Department issued public notices in nespapers cautioning people against the “registration drives” current underway by AAP for two schemes – Mahila Samman promising Rs 2,100 monthly allowances for women, and Sanjeevani scheme promising free health care for senior citizens aged above 60 years. The government notices said, these schemes were “non-existent” and urged residents not to share personal data. The notices clearly said no such schemes have been notified by Delhi government.
AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal had announced both these schemes and promised to implement them if the party returns to power in 2025 Assembly polls. BJP leaders described this as “economic offence and fraud” and demanded a probe into how personal and financial data from voters are being collected. Arvind Kejriwal, clearly on the backfoot, said there was nothing wrong if people come forward to register their names if they trust AAP to deliver on its poll promises.
Chief Minister Atishi herself have been moving around with Kejriwal in Delhi and getting the forms filled up, and on the other hand, her own government was issuing public notices cautioning people that the schemes were non-existent. Atishi alleged that this was part of “BJP’s conspiracy” and threatened to take action against Delhi government officers who issued these ads.
Congress, the third force in Delhi, waded into this debate and alleged that there was no difference between BJP and Kejriwal, as both the parties “were cheating the people of Delhi”. Congress issued a White Paper on AAP government’s promises and failures. Congress leader Ajay Maken described Arvind Kejriwal as “a big liar who has no ideology and who can do anything to grab power”.
The public notices issued by Delhi government are quite interesting. Delhi government’s bureaucracy works under the Lt. Governor. Since Kejriwal announced both schemes bypassing all, the L-G threw a googly, by inserting ads in newspapers describing the schemes as “non-existent”. On the other hand, Kejriwal is confident that both these schemes would ensuring a repeat win for his party, just like the Laadli Behan Yojana that swept the BJP-ShivSena-NCP government back in power in Maharashtra, and Modi’s Ayushman Yojana that gave benefits to BJP.
Kejriwal had played this card earlier in Gujarat assembly elections. He had promised Rs 2,000 monthly allowance to women, and organized camps for women voters to fill up forms. In the elections, AAP got 14 per cent votes. Similarly, in Delhi, Kejriwal had started “registration” of women and senior voters two days ago. AAP claimed that by Wednesday evening, 22 lakh women registered their names under Mahila Samman Yojana, while two lakh senior citizens registered their names under Sanjeevani Yojana.
Naturally, this caused tension in Delhi BJP camp, and it was evident on Wednesday, when Delhi BJP leader Parvesh Verma started distributing Rs 1,100 cash to each woman voter in his residence. Verma is going to contest against Kejriwal in New Delhi constituency. So, he adopted the ‘Kejriwal formula’ to defeat the AAP chief. At the government bungalow in 20, Windsor Place, there was a big crowd of women who were being given Rs 1,100 in envelopes. They had gone to Verma’s home carrying their voter identity cards.
India TV reporter met several women who came out carrying folders in which Rs 1100 cash was inserted in envelopes. The folders carried photographs of BJP leaders. Chief Minister Atishi demanded that ED or CBI should raid Verma’s residence and arrest him, as she suspected there were crores of rupees worth cash lying in his home. Parvesh Verma clarified that his father former CM Sahib Singh Verma had set up an NGO which helped poor and destitute women and this cash was being distributed for this purpose. He said, this was not black money and every rupee was accountable.
Kejriwal, by evening, issued an appeal to voters not to hesitate in taking cash, but refrain from giving votes to BJP. The AAP chief, who was caught in his own net on the Mahila Samman and Sanjeevani schemes issue because of Delhi govt ads, now got an escape route after it was found that Parvesh Verma was distributing cash to women voters. Both tried to offer inducements to women voters, either in cash or getting names registered. Parvesh Verma’s style was more blatant. Kejriwal is an old player in this game. He did not distribute money, but promised to give if elected. Verma straightaway gave envelopes filled with cash. Most of the politicians secretly distribute cash and other goodies during elections, but in Hindi, there is a proverb: “Chor Wohi Hota Hai, Jo Pakda Jaye” (The thief is the one who gets caught). Parvesh Verma was caught and his defence seems to be weak.
Parliament’s fight should not have gone to Police
The scuffle between Congress and BJP MPs outside the Makar Dwar gate of Parliament on Thursday was unprecedented and unfortunate. Two BJP MPs, Pratap Sarangi and Mukesh Rajput were hospitalized with head injuries and trauma. Both parties filed complaints against each other in Parliament Street police station and the Speaker declared a ban on staging protests outside the gates of Parliament.
Both Houses of Parliament were adjourned sine die on Friday as uproar continued with both sides blaming each other. BJP MPs filed a police complaint against Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi, alleging that he shoved Mukesh Rajput, who was standing next to him, and Rajput fell on Sarangi.
Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan accused Rahul Gandhi of “behaving like a goon by pushing and shoving our MPs”. He said, security personnel had asked Rahul to enter Parliament from another gate, but he insisted on entering through the gate where BJP MPs were staging protest. “Their arrogance is on full display and today, I am upset and my mind is filled with pain”, Chouhan said.
Rahul Gandhi, with Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge sitting next to him, told a press conference that the “drama was pre-planned and it was a plan to cause distraction from the real issues about Adani and B.R.Ambedkar.” He denied that he pushed or shoved anybody. Congress alleged that Mallikarjun Kharge was pushed to the ground by BJP MPs.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to both injured BJP MPs Pratap Sarangi and Mukesh Rajput on phone, while several Union Ministers visited the two in RML Hospital.
What happened outside the Parliament gate was unfortunate and shocking. Some facts stand out clearly. Rahul Gandhi insisted on entering from the gate where BJP MPs were protesting. Two MPs fell when he pushed some of the MPs. Both MPs are in hospital, with one of them having stitches in his forehead.
The first question is: Was it necessary for Rahul Gandhi to enter from that particular gate? Security personnel say, they suggested an alternative route for him, but Rahul chose his path through the BJP MPs. Rahul alleges that he was pushed and shoved, while Congress is saying that Kharge was also pushed to the ground. The question arises: Why is there no video on what Rahul did or what happened to him and Kharge outside the gate?
Media personnel say, media cameras are not permitted to go up to the gate. Then the question arises: Were the MPs injured only because of the scuffle? Rahul is alleging that Modi is trying to shield Adani and this was part of a plot to scuttle the debate on Gautam Adani. Kharge is alleging that this was a conspiracy to avoid a debate on Babasaheb Ambedkar. They are free to make their arguments, but the fact is that two MPs were injured in the melee, and blood oozing from the forehead of one MP is visible in videos. How did this happen? Who did this? Congress has no reply to these questions.
It would have been better if Rahul Gandhi had visited the hospital and met the injured MP Pratap Sarangi, who had a cut on his forehead. He could have tendered apology to him in hospital. This would have raised his prestige. Nobody would have got a chance to raise a dispute, but in today’s politics, ego reigns supreme. Nobody is willing to admit mistakes. Both sides insisted on filing FIRs. Both sides want to show their own videos.
An issue that could have been solved by tendering apology will now be examined by police. This is not a good precedent for our parliamentary democracy.
“Right if we win, Wrong if we lose!”
Maha Vikas Aghadi parties are not ready to accept the recent electoral mandate in Maharashtra. MVA leaders are now planning anti-EVM protests to demand replacing Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) with ballots. NCP founder Sharad Pawar and Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray met all defeated candidates on Wednesday and instructed them to file election petitions for matching EVM results with those of VVPATs. Plans are afoot to set up legal teams in the state and in Delhi.
Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has already demanded that all EVMs should be replaced with ballots, with BJP leaders accusing that the Congress is now desperate and should rather replace Rahul Gandhi as its leader. Congress leaders argue that in June this year, MVA had won 30 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, but five months later, MVA won only 48 out of 288 assembly seats. How can this be possible, they ask.
Probably Congress leaders forgot that in June, 2019, BJP had won all 7 Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, but eight months later, BJP could win only eight out of a total 70 assembly seats in Delhi. If we go backwards, in 2014, BJP had won all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi by a huge margin, but a few months later, when assembly elections were held, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party registered a historic landslide win (67 out of 70 seats).
How voters can change their minds after such a short time gap can be illustrated from this year’s Lok Sabha results. BJP’s tally was 240 in this year’s Lok Sabha election. At that time, for the Congress, EVM was a boon. Nobody questioned about EVM battery, nor demanded matching with VVPAT results. Had BJP crossed the 300-mark, Congress would then have blamed its defeat on EVMs. Rahul Gandhi would, by now, have started his ‘Bring Ballots’ Padyatra.
Questions began to be raised after BJP’s victory in this year’s Haryana assembly election. Questions were raised about EVM batteries that were displaying 99 per cent charging. The Election Commission responded with a 1,500-page long reply. When questions were raised about VVPATs, EC replied that nearly 4 crore votes were matched with VVPAT results, and not a single result was found incorrect.
One interesting point to note is that, when the first complaints were raised about EVMs, Election Commission organized a Hackathon challenging anybody to come forward and hack an EVM. None came forward.
The issue was raised several times in the Supreme Court and every time, the apex court dismissed every petition. Anybody having any concrete proof or genuine grounds, can file petitions. Those who went to courts without any solid proof and put forth arguments based on surmises, had to return empty-handed.
To argue that EVMs worked correctly in Jharkhand and were fudged in Maharashtra is not a good thing for democracy. Seeding baseless doubts in the minds of people about the electoral process can create a situation as is being witnessed in neighbouring Pakistan.
Yogi to Kharge : Why silence on killer Razakars?
Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath on Tuesday, at his Akola, Maharashtra, rally, launched a direct attack on Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge. He mentioned about how Razakars owing allegiance to the then Nizam of Hyderabad had burnt his ancestral village, Warwatti, in 1946, killing his mother and sister.
Yogi said, “Kharge Ji is unnecessarily getting angry with me. I respect his age. He should express his anger with the Nizam of Hyderabad, whose Razakars burnt his village, mercilessly killed Hindus and took the lives of his mother, sister, and family members. He should bring this truth before the nation and the world. Only then people will know the meaning of my slogan, ‘Bantogey Toh Katogey’. He is refraining from placing this truth before the nation due to vote bank compulsions. He is deceiving the nation. I am only a Yogi. I have learnt only one thing. Do whatever is good for your country. For me, there can be nothing greater than my country and Sanatan Dharma.”
Yogi was only quoting from history. Kharge, while addressing a Congress workers’ convention at Delhi’s Talkatora stadium on August 17 last year, had said, “It is my misfortune that I could not see my mom, my brother, sister and uncle, because our home was burnt during the riots that led to Hyderabad liberation. Only my father and I were alive. It was in 1946, as riots went on from 1946 till 1948. My father and I fled the village and we later settled in Gulbarga.”
Yogi was responding to Kharge’s criticism that he made at his Maharashtra and Jharkhand rallies. Kharge had said, “A true yogi cannot use language like ‘Bantogey Toh Katogey’. Such language is used by terrorists. Yogi is the head of a mutt, wears saffron robes, but believes in ‘Munh me ram, Bagal Mein Chhuri’ (a wolf in lamb’s clothing).”
One must understand why Yogi raised the Hyderabad Razakar’s atrocities while replying to Kharge’s charge. The Congress President has often disclosed how he and his father fled their village during the 1946 riots and their family members died at the hands of Razakars. But Kharge never mentioned the Razakars or Nizam in his speeches.
It was Yogi who grabbed this point and put a poser to Kharge. Yogi alleged that Kharge was avoiding mention of Nizam and Razakars because his Congress party was concerned about keeping its Muslim votes intact. One BJP leader remarked, how can you call it secularism, when Kharge lost his family to jihadi Razakars and yet he speaks about Hindus as terrorists.
Senior Congress leader and former Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot hit back saying, “BJP leaders are intimidating the public. They brought the “Ek Rahengey, Safe Rahengey” slogan later, to control the damage, but their original slogan was ‘Bantogey Toh Katogey’. This is a dangerous slogan. Is this not at attempt to intimidate people? This is a clear indication of the way they want to do politics in the name of religion during elections.”
Hindu sadhus have openly lent support to Yogi. Jagadguru Rambhadracharya said, “despite many sects, Hindus must remain united. Only then nobody can harm us. United we remain strong. Saffron is the colour of Bhagwan. It was this saffron flag which Shivaji used to unite Maharashtra. Bhagwadharis should remain in politics, not those who are suited-booted.” It was Mallikarjun Kharge who had questioned Yogi’s saffron robes.
Maharashtra Elections: First Families At War
There was a flurry of nominations by close kin of top political leaders of Maharashtra, as filing of nominations for assembly polls closed on Tuesday. Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi and BJP-led Mahayuti were still locked in consultations to iron out differences over the remaining seats.
On Monday, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, Deputy CM Ajit Pawar, former CM Prithviraj Chavan, former CM Ashok Chavan’s daughter Srijaya Chavan, MNS chief Raj Thackeray’s son Amit Thackeray, Nawab Malik’s daughter Sana Malik, Late Baba Siddiqui’s son Zeeshan Siddiqui, Samajwadi Party leader Abu Asim Azmi and several others filed nominations. NCP patriarch Sharad Pawar himself accompanied his grandson Yugendra Pawar in Baramati, who is contesting against his grand uncle Ajit Pawar. There were reports of local rebellion in several parties.
As of now, Congress expects to field more than 105 candidates, though it has announced names of 102 candidates, while Shiv Sena (UBT) has announced 84 and NCP(Sharad Pawar) 82 candidates. 18 seats are still left undecided in MVA.
The most spectacular contest will be in Baramati, where Ajit ‘Dada’ Pawar will be facing Sharad Pawar’s grandson Yugendra Pawar. Ajit Pawar has been consistently winning this seat since 1991, and he has been an MLA for 33 years. Ajit Pawar admitted that he made a mistake by fielding his wife Sunetra to contest against Supriya Sule during the Lok Sabha elections, but this time people will ‘punish’ Sharad Pawar for committing the same mistake.
Yugendra Pawar is contesting elections for the first time in his life. After filing nomination, Yugendra described his grandpa Sharad Pawar as his ‘guru’ and ‘markdarshak’. Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule said, the fight in Baramati is between ideologies and not between members of a family.
But the real fact is: the fight is in the family and it could be a tough and close contest. It was Ajit Pawar who trained the NCP cadre in Baramati for 33 years, and this time, he has the support of BJP and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena. That is why Ajit Pawar looks confident, but he also understands that his uncle Sharad Pawar has been doing politics in Baramati since 59 years and he has proved his mettle during the Lok Sabha elections.
The Baramati result will prove to be a gamechanger for Ajit Pawar’s political career, and as far as Sharad Pawar is concerned, the result from Baramati will decide to which camp the real NCP belongs.
The second most interesting battle will be in Kopri Pachpakhri seat of Thane, where Chief Minister Eknath Shinde will be facing Kedar Dighe, the nephew of his political guru Anand Dighe. Kedar Dighe has been fielded by Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. Deputy CM and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis, who accompanied Eknath Shinde on his roadshow on Monday, said, “mere blood relation does not make anybody a successor. A successor emerges only by dint of his work and thoughts and Eknath Shinde is the real successor of Anand Dighe”.
Eknath Shinde has been consistently winning this seat since 2009 and in the last election, he got more than 65 per cent votes. Thane is considered the citadel of Eknath Shinde, and his party candidate Naresh Mhaske had won this year’s Lok Sabha elections.
The third interesting battle is in Mahim, Mumbai, where Raj Thackeray’s son Amit will be testing the electoral waters for the first time. He is facing Mahesh Sawant of Shiv Sena (UBT). Uddhav’s son Aaditya Thackeray is contesting from Worli, where MNS has fielded a candidate in a tit-for-tat action.
Overall, people will be witnessing interesting intra-dynasty battles this time. It was Ajit Pawar who was fielded by his uncle Sharad Pawar from Baramati 33 years ago, and now the tide has turned. Sharad Pawar has fielded his grandson to defeat his nephew Ajit this time. Sharad Pawar wants to tell the people of Maharashtra, who is the real ‘Dada’ of Pawar dynasty.
Similarly, Anand Dighe had anointed Eknath Shinde as his successor in Shiv Sena, but now Anand Dighe’s nephew will be challenging Eknath Shinde. Raj Thackeray used to consider himself the real successor of Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray, but now he has fielded his son to defeat his cousin Udhav Thackeray’s candidate. So, one would be watching a battle between brothers in Mahim.
Baba Siddiqui’s son Zeeshan is going to get the sympathy vote after the murder of his father, and he is going to claim his father’s legacy. For Sana Malik, his father Nawab Malik’s cases can pose problems. On the other hand, Anil Deshmukh is seeking votes for his son by telling voters about the cases filed against him. In Maharashtra politics, sons, daughters, nephews, nieces, grand sons and grand daughters are all in the fray. It is a situation where nobody will be raising the issue of dynastic politics this time.
Maharashtra: Seat-sharing is a facade, the real fight is for the CM’s chair
The BJP-led ruling Mahayuti alliance on Thursday ironed out its differences over seat sharing in the presence of Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi. BJP has agreed to leave some more seats for NCP (Ajit), and all the three allies have made a joint pledge to prevent party rebels from contesting.
BJP leaders Devendra Fadnavis and Chandrashekhar Bawankule, NCP(Ajit) leaders Praful Patel and Ajit Pawar, and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde had a marathon meeting at Amit Shah’s residence, where the Home Minister asked all three allies to ensure that rebels do not enter the election fray.
Shah said, it will be the responsibility of party leaders to convince their rebels not to contest. Most of the differences between the three allies are over seats in the Greater Mumbai region.
Ajit Pawar’s problem is that he has several heavyweight leaders in his party who want ticket for their kin, and if his party fails to get those seats, they may contest as rebels. It will be difficult for Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar to stem rebellion in their parties, but they have a good advantage as far as the election symbols are concerned. Both Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit’s NCP have the original party symbols with them.
Maha Vikas Aghadi is yet to iron out its seat sharing problem. Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aditya Thackeray told India TV’s daylong conclave ‘Chunav Manch’ that the decision about the chief ministerial face will be taken only after the seat sharing arrangement is finalized. At the same time, he reminded that the people of Maharashtra still remember Uddhav Thackeray’s rule.
Priyanka Chaturvedi, SS(UBT) spokesperson said at the conclave that Uddhav Thackeray leads in popularity ranks compared to other leaders, but NCP supremo Sharad Pawar has consistently said that the question of CM’s face be kept on hold till the elections are over.
Already, BJP-led Mahayuti alliance has decided to bombard the state with election rallies. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be addressing election rallies in Maharashtra from November 5 till 14, for eight days. He will be seeking votes not only for BJP, but also for alliance partners.
On the other hand, the Maha Vikas Aghadi is yet to come out of the woods as far as seat sharing is concerned. Seat sharing is not the sole issue. The main issue is who will become the Chief Minister if Aghadi comes to power.
For now, Uddhav Thackeray is the first claimant for the CM’s chair in Aghadi and there are others waiting in the wings. In Mahayuti, there are three claimants for the chief minister’s post. Eknath Shinde continues to be the CM, but if BJP wins more seats than Shiv Sena (Shinde), then Devendra Fadnavis will surely say that he is going to make a comeback. Ajit Dada Pawar is also dreaming to become the CM.
Vintage Modi is back: Exposes Congress on caste
A day after the spectacular Haryana victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sharpened his attack on Congress saying, the results of Haryana reflect the nation’s mood. He said, Congress was trying to spread its ‘hateful and poisonous agenda’ by dividing Hindus among caste lines for partisan ends. Modi said, “Congress never raises the issue of caste divisions within the Muslim community. Its formula is simple: keep Muslims as a vote bank by spreading fear, and divide Hindu society on caste lines to score electoral advantage…The same Congress leaders who raise caste division issue among Hindus remain mum about caste divisions among Indian Muslims”.
The Prime Minister’s tone and tenor of speech reminds one of Vintage Modi, whose self-confidence now seems to be on a high. Modi replied to all questions that were being raised after BJP’s seat tally was reduced in the Lok Sabha elections. He made it clear that neither has his popularity waned, nor has the nation’s mood changed for the Congress to stop his BJP juggernaut. Modi’s speech was meant to convey to the people that the Congress was trying to divide only Hindus, and not Muslims. This was in reference to the vote divisions that were noticed among Hindu castes during the Lok Sabha elections.
There is a Hindi proverb, ‘Kaath Ki Haandi Baar Baar Nahin Chadhti’ (you can deceive once, but not always). BJP got voters from all sections of society this time in Haryana and the party has regained its mojo.
On the other hand, the anti-Modi bloc appears to be demoralized and already knives are out among the allies against the ‘arrogant’ attitude of Congress party. The immediate consequences are being seen in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, UP and Delhi.
In UP, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav snubbed the Congress and unilaterally declared the names of six candidates out of 10 seats going for byelections, without consulting his ally. Akhilesh had already realized that the gains made in LS elections by Congress in UP was at the cost of Samajwadi Party, while in Madhya Pradesh and Haryana, Congress refused to share a single seat with his party. The Congress was demanding five out of the 10 seats in UP assembly byelections. Akhilesh was waiting for the right moment, and he struck the day after the Haryana results were out.
In Maharashtra, Congress, which had been asking for more seats in Maha Vikas Aghadi, has now lost its bargaining power, and Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray is pressing for the MVA to declare him as the chief ministerial candidate. The allies are now telling Congress that it derives its strength from INDIA bloc, and the party has no clout in the absence of an alliance.
In Delhi, Aam Aadmi Party has declared that there would be no alliance with Congress for assembly polls. Arvind Kejriwal wanted a toehold in Haryana, but the Congress leaders, feeling the ‘wind’ blowing in favour of the party, kept the seat-sharing issue hanging and rejected AAP’s request at the last moment. A furious Kejriwal fielded his candidates in all the 90 seats in Haryana. Though his party drew a blank, it halted Congress from returning to power.
Haryana and J&K: Modi Pass, Rahul Fail
The voters of Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir have given historic verdicts. They have given clear mandates, but the results have surprised everybody. Neither the BJP, nor the Congress, nor psephologists had any inkling of the results that were going to come in from Haryana. One point is now clear. Narendra Modi is BJP’s biggest strength. He fights elections with fervour and toils hard. The historic hat-trick in Haryana will fire up Modi to prepare his strategies for Jharkhand and Maharashtra elections. It will instill new confidence and energy among BJP workers in both the states. BJP’s bargaining power in Maharashtra’s Mahayuti alliance will increase.
The biggest message from Haryana verdict is that the narrative created by Congress and other opposition parties about caste reservation, by creating a sense of fear in the minds of Dalits, has now been nullified. In the coming weeks, one may find Modi trying to fix other problems, one by one. He has already reconfigured the pension scheme and brought unanimity. Problems relating to farmers, employment, youths will be resolved. This, in short, is Modi’s roadmap for the next few months.
And now, an analysis about Haryana and J&K assembly elections.
HARYANA
For the first time in 57 years, a party has got a third consecutive chance to form a government in Haryana. Even BJP leaders were surprised when the party won 48 out of a total of 90 seats, a clear majority. Congress bigwigs had to cancel their celebrations as trends came in. By evening, the party started alleging that EVMs (electronic voting machines) were tampered with. But Kumari Selja, the Dalit Congress leader, said there was no point cribbing and the party high command should find out the real reasons for the defeat.
Narendra Modi’s victory in Haryana will work as a ‘sanjeevani'(life-giving medicine) for the BJP. Those who were speaking about Modi’s waning popularity have been given a clear reply by the electorate. Congress leadership is now demoralized after having created a big hype about the possibility of winning Haryana polls. Those who were projecting Rahul Gandhi as having the Midas touch, will now find that his ‘herbal medicines’ have failed.
The Congress used all its fire power in Haryana, and the debate in the party during electioneering was not about how many seats it was going to win, but who would become the Chief Minister. For Rahul Gandhi, who was dreaming of ‘conquering’ one state after another, the Haryana result has come as a huge setback. Rahul used to say at his rallies that Modi’s shoulders have drooped after the Lok Sabha polls, but now he must be seeing Modi’s 56-inch chest in his dreams. The defeat in Haryana will surely reduce Rahul’s strength in the INDIA bloc. Already, one alliance partner (Shiv Sena UBT) from Maharashtra has remarked that Congress always finds it difficult to win, wherenever there is a straight contest between Congress and BJP. For Congress leaders, it will take time to find out the exact reasons why the party lost. They are yet to recover from the impact.
Narendra Modi is right when he says that whenever Congress loses, it questions EVMs and blames the Election Commission. AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal said, Congress lost in Haryana because of overconfidence. Congress leaders had taken victory in Haryana for granted and they had briefed Rahul Gandhi that the farmers, women, Jats and youths were against BJP. They were citing Agniveer, farmers’ agitation and Delhi women wrestlers’ agitation as examples. An atmosphere was created to project that Congress return to power was certain.
The result: Infighting began over who would become the CM. Randeep Singh Surjewala did not move out of Kaithal, Kumar Selja stayed at home for most part of the electioneering period, and the party had to bear the brunt. The voters of Haryana have given a clear message that they would support only those leaders who would work on the ground.
Secondly, the decimation of regional and small family-centric parties like INLD, JJP, shows that the days of dynastic politics are almost over. The voters have ruthlessly defeated the members of Chautala dynasty, and rejected Bahujan Samaj party and Kejriwal, too. It is true that in the early days of campaigning, the wind was blowing against the BJP because of the anti-incumbency factor after 10 years of rule. But Narendra Modi silently prepared his strategy.
The entire focus was shifted to project that this election was not about Haryana, but about picking the right choice between BJP and Congress. The message was sent that this was an election against dynastic politics and casteism, a fight between what Modi frequently says, ‘naamdaar'(those belonging to dynasty) vs ‘kaamdaar’ (those who work). Modi’s formula clicked and the voters of Haryana made history.
JAMMU & KASHMIR
The results of Jammu & Kashmir have also suprised many. National Conference won more seats that its leaders had expected, while Congress’ performace was poor. The NC-Congress alliance has got a clear majority of 48 in a House of 90. Out of this, Congress has won only six seats, while NC has won 42. Out of the 90 seats, 47 are in Kashmir Valley and 43 in Jammu region.
The interesting point is, BJP won 29 out of 43 seats in Jammu region, but could not open its account in Kashmir valley. The biggest setback was for Mehbooba Mufti’s JKPDP, which won only three seats. As the picture became clearer, NC leader Dr Farooq Abdullah describes the results as a people’s mandate for bringing back Article 370. He declared that his son Omar Abdullah will be the new CM. Omar has won from both seats, Ganderbal and Budgam.
BJP’s win in Jammu region is not a big achievement. The surprising part IS that in Kashmir Valley, though the common voters admitted that life has returned to normal after revocation of Article 370, with cinema halls reopening, stone throwers vanishing, yet they said clearly on camera that they would not vote for Modi. The gainer was National Conference. Though BJP did not get votes, at least it has the satisfaction that common people in the Valley have appreciated Modi’s work during the last five years.
Farooq Abdullah and his son will now be facing a Catch-22 situation. They have promised to bring back Article 30, but they know it quite well that it is the Parliament which has the power to take such a big decision. So, till the time the NC government stays in power, its leaders would still be searching for answers on this point.
How Kejriwal outsmarted both BJP and Congress by resigning
Nobody knows why Arvind Kejriwal decided to resign as Delhi chief minister and what were his compulsions. If he could run his government from jail, who prevented him from doing the same while living free, out of jail? Let me tell you, Kejriwal is a clever politician and he very well understands the game of perception. He won elections by levelling charges of corruption against top leaders of the country. Now he is himself facing charges of corruption in the liquor scam and this does not suit his style of politics. Kejriwal became chief minister after practically decimating both the Congress and BJP in Delhi elections. He has consistently won assembly elections for his party in Delhi, reduced Congress to a zero and badly marginalized the BJP in the national capital.
Now he will launch a fresh war, and start a new race against both Congress and BJP. Kejriwal knows he cannot run faster in a race while carrying the baggage of liquor scam on his shoulder. For Kejriwal, the most important thing to do is to remove the charges of corruption from his shoulder, and get his shirt spotlessly clean from the stain of being an accused in the liquor scam. And, I think, he has found a way out.
Kejriwal knows the trial in the liquor scam will linger on for long, and it can take years for a verdict to arrive. He will have to be on the defensive if the opposition levels corruption charges against him. This does not suit his style of politics. So, the first step that he took after walking out of jail was to resign as chief minister. By doing this, he has kept himself away from power. His second step will be to win the forthcoming assembly polls in Delhi. And then go to town to claim that he has been given a clean chit by the people. That he does not carry any stain of corruption on his shirt. The second aspect of this game is, making both Congress and BJP leaders confused. If you go by the reactions of both these rival parties, you will find they are questioning: Why Atishi? Why Atishi’s parents had signed a mercy petition for executed terrorist Afzal Guru? Why Atishi’s parents had added the surname ‘Marlena’ to her name? So, the charges are now being levelled at Atishi. Opposition leaders in Delhi are describing her as a temporary chief minister and try to hound her. And the ‘permanent chief minister’ will fight elections. For Kejriwal, the field is open. By the time, Congress and BJP leaders understand his game in Delhi, he would have run far ahead in the race.
Is Kejriwal’s release a worry for Congress?
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal came out of Tihar jail on Friday after 177 days. The Supreme Court granted him bail on conditions that he would not attend his office and sign any official file, nor shall he contact witnesses or speak about the liquor policy case in public. Coming out of prison, Kejriwal told cheering AAP supporters, “it is God which gave me strength and my resolve never weakened. Instead, my resolve multiplied 100 times.” The actual battle is going to be fought in the Haryana assembly elections. The court battles are over for the moment, but the case will linger on. Kejriwal’s release from jail will start a new battle on the political front. The fight is about perception, about creating a narrative.
Kejriwal claims that allegations of bribery made against him and his party in the Delhi liquor excise scam are false and the entire case is fake. This is the reason, he says, why he got bail from the highest court. BJP is going to tell the people that getting bail does not mean he has been acquitted and has been given a clean chit. BJP leaders point out to the SC verdict in which it has been said that his arrest by CBI was legally valid. AAP leaders allege, BJP misused ED and CBI to harass Kejriwal, but their plan has been foiled by the apex court. BJP leaders remind of the conditions under which Kejriwal cannot function as a Chief Minister. He cannot go to his office or sign official files.
There is a political twist to this case. While opposition parties expressed happiness over Kejriwal’s release from jail, Congress maintained silence. The reason: Haryana assembly elections, where talks of alliance between Congress and AAP failed over seat distribution. Congress leaders fear that if Kejriwal goes all out to garner votes for AAP in Haryana, its vote base may be hit. The fear is reflected in Congress stalwart Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s speeches, where he is telling Haryana voters that the battle is only between BJP and Congress, and people should not squander their votes by supporting any third party. In his Haryana campaign, Kejriwal is naturally going to take Congress to task, and this can cause problems for the party in the near future too. One must understand that AAP came to power in Delhi and Punjab by dislodging Congress.