Haryana and J&K: Modi Pass, Rahul Fail
The voters of Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir have given historic verdicts. They have given clear mandates, but the results have surprised everybody. Neither the BJP, nor the Congress, nor psephologists had any inkling of the results that were going to come in from Haryana. One point is now clear. Narendra Modi is BJP’s biggest strength. He fights elections with fervour and toils hard. The historic hat-trick in Haryana will fire up Modi to prepare his strategies for Jharkhand and Maharashtra elections. It will instill new confidence and energy among BJP workers in both the states. BJP’s bargaining power in Maharashtra’s Mahayuti alliance will increase.
The biggest message from Haryana verdict is that the narrative created by Congress and other opposition parties about caste reservation, by creating a sense of fear in the minds of Dalits, has now been nullified. In the coming weeks, one may find Modi trying to fix other problems, one by one. He has already reconfigured the pension scheme and brought unanimity. Problems relating to farmers, employment, youths will be resolved. This, in short, is Modi’s roadmap for the next few months.
And now, an analysis about Haryana and J&K assembly elections.
HARYANA
For the first time in 57 years, a party has got a third consecutive chance to form a government in Haryana. Even BJP leaders were surprised when the party won 48 out of a total of 90 seats, a clear majority. Congress bigwigs had to cancel their celebrations as trends came in. By evening, the party started alleging that EVMs (electronic voting machines) were tampered with. But Kumari Selja, the Dalit Congress leader, said there was no point cribbing and the party high command should find out the real reasons for the defeat.
Narendra Modi’s victory in Haryana will work as a ‘sanjeevani'(life-giving medicine) for the BJP. Those who were speaking about Modi’s waning popularity have been given a clear reply by the electorate. Congress leadership is now demoralized after having created a big hype about the possibility of winning Haryana polls. Those who were projecting Rahul Gandhi as having the Midas touch, will now find that his ‘herbal medicines’ have failed.
The Congress used all its fire power in Haryana, and the debate in the party during electioneering was not about how many seats it was going to win, but who would become the Chief Minister. For Rahul Gandhi, who was dreaming of ‘conquering’ one state after another, the Haryana result has come as a huge setback. Rahul used to say at his rallies that Modi’s shoulders have drooped after the Lok Sabha polls, but now he must be seeing Modi’s 56-inch chest in his dreams. The defeat in Haryana will surely reduce Rahul’s strength in the INDIA bloc. Already, one alliance partner (Shiv Sena UBT) from Maharashtra has remarked that Congress always finds it difficult to win, wherenever there is a straight contest between Congress and BJP. For Congress leaders, it will take time to find out the exact reasons why the party lost. They are yet to recover from the impact.
Narendra Modi is right when he says that whenever Congress loses, it questions EVMs and blames the Election Commission. AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal said, Congress lost in Haryana because of overconfidence. Congress leaders had taken victory in Haryana for granted and they had briefed Rahul Gandhi that the farmers, women, Jats and youths were against BJP. They were citing Agniveer, farmers’ agitation and Delhi women wrestlers’ agitation as examples. An atmosphere was created to project that Congress return to power was certain.
The result: Infighting began over who would become the CM. Randeep Singh Surjewala did not move out of Kaithal, Kumar Selja stayed at home for most part of the electioneering period, and the party had to bear the brunt. The voters of Haryana have given a clear message that they would support only those leaders who would work on the ground.
Secondly, the decimation of regional and small family-centric parties like INLD, JJP, shows that the days of dynastic politics are almost over. The voters have ruthlessly defeated the members of Chautala dynasty, and rejected Bahujan Samaj party and Kejriwal, too. It is true that in the early days of campaigning, the wind was blowing against the BJP because of the anti-incumbency factor after 10 years of rule. But Narendra Modi silently prepared his strategy.
The entire focus was shifted to project that this election was not about Haryana, but about picking the right choice between BJP and Congress. The message was sent that this was an election against dynastic politics and casteism, a fight between what Modi frequently says, ‘naamdaar'(those belonging to dynasty) vs ‘kaamdaar’ (those who work). Modi’s formula clicked and the voters of Haryana made history.
JAMMU & KASHMIR
The results of Jammu & Kashmir have also suprised many. National Conference won more seats that its leaders had expected, while Congress’ performace was poor. The NC-Congress alliance has got a clear majority of 48 in a House of 90. Out of this, Congress has won only six seats, while NC has won 42. Out of the 90 seats, 47 are in Kashmir Valley and 43 in Jammu region.
The interesting point is, BJP won 29 out of 43 seats in Jammu region, but could not open its account in Kashmir valley. The biggest setback was for Mehbooba Mufti’s JKPDP, which won only three seats. As the picture became clearer, NC leader Dr Farooq Abdullah describes the results as a people’s mandate for bringing back Article 370. He declared that his son Omar Abdullah will be the new CM. Omar has won from both seats, Ganderbal and Budgam.
BJP’s win in Jammu region is not a big achievement. The surprising part IS that in Kashmir Valley, though the common voters admitted that life has returned to normal after revocation of Article 370, with cinema halls reopening, stone throwers vanishing, yet they said clearly on camera that they would not vote for Modi. The gainer was National Conference. Though BJP did not get votes, at least it has the satisfaction that common people in the Valley have appreciated Modi’s work during the last five years.
Farooq Abdullah and his son will now be facing a Catch-22 situation. They have promised to bring back Article 30, but they know it quite well that it is the Parliament which has the power to take such a big decision. So, till the time the NC government stays in power, its leaders would still be searching for answers on this point.
Polling in Kashmir : Refugee dream realized after 75 years
I have been observing elections in Jammu and Kashmir for the last 40 years. For the first time, on Tuesday, I watched voters beating drums outside polling booths and dancing to drumbeats. Such a scene was never witnessed in Jammu and Kashmir in the past, during polling. Those celebrating the festival of democracy are termed by officials as ‘West Pakistani Refugees’. They got their voting rights for the first time in 75 years, after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. West Pakistani Refugees, Valmiki Samaj and Gorkha community people were never given rights in the past to vote for Assembly or Parliamentary elections. They were entitled to vote only for Block Development Council and District Development Council elections. I remember, seven years ago in 2017, Dr Farooq Abdullah was contesting Lok Sabha elections from Srinagar. There were 12,61,315 names in the voters’ list, but only seven percent voters reached the polling booths. Dr Farooq Abdullah got only about 48,000 votes and won. Contrast this with the polling figures on Tuesday, when Jammu and Kashmir recorded 65.65 per cent voting in the third phase. This itself is indicative of a sea change that has come in Kashmir politics. During Partition, 75 years ago, those who had to leave their homes in West Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, and settle in Jammu and Kashmir, had to live as refugees in their own homeland, devoid of the right to cast their vote. For 75 years, there were being addressed as ‘Pakistani’. But these were people who had crossed over in 1947, when India was undivided before Partition. Nearly 22 thousand families had to live in their own homeland as ‘refugees’ for 75 years. More than three to four generations died without realizing their dream to be called a ‘Bharatiya’ or a ‘Kashmiri’ one day. On Tuesday, they looked ecstatic, having their fingers inked by polling officers before casting their precious vote. The tears of happiness on the faces of women cannot be described in words. These are people who realize the true meaning of abrogation of Article 370. We can only realize their level of happiness, but cannot gauge the magnitude of their pain. They had to bear the cross of ‘Article 370’ for 75 years. On Tuesday, there was hundred per cent polling among these families. They were openly saying they would vote for Modi, because the Prime Minister gave them their voting right. They are unhappy with National Conference which has promised to bring back Article 370 in its manifesto. Congress is in electoral alliance with National Conference in this election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Tuesday, rubbed wounds into the opposition, by telling an election rally in Haryana that Congress leaders have never spoken about reoccupying Pak Occupied Kashmir, even till this date.
One Nation, One Election : What’s the game?
When the first general elections in India were held in 1951, after our nation became a republic, both Lok Sabha and assembly elections were held simultaneously. The ‘One Nation, One Election’ idea is not new. Probably, the makers of the Constitution had no premonitions about break-up of political parties, leaders changing parties, governments collapsing, followed by mid-term elections. The reality now is: governments at the Centre and states collapsed so many times and subsequently elections were held.
We have now arrived at a situation where assembly elections are held in states after gaps of almost every six months. Because of frequent holding of elections, neither the Centre nor the state governments can undertake reforms and take hard decisions, out of fear that they might lose their vote banks, or face dissatisfaction from voters. The idea of holding simultaneous Lok Sabha and assembly elections is a good one, but it may be difficult to implement. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s intentions may be bonafide, but it has now become a habit for the Congress to oppose every major decision of Modi government. Congress leaders smell conspiracy behing every major step that Modi takes. Other political parties, instead of accepting the merits, will rather opt to weigh whether the decision will be useful or harmful to their interests.
To expect political parties to rise above politics on the issue of ‘One Nation, One Election’, is to ask for the moon. At the ground level, some opposition parties feel that if simultaneous elections are held, they may not have adequate resources to counter Modi. Their second fear is that they do not have a strong national level leader like Modi who can sway voters when elections are held across the country. But these parties are unwilling to admit this in public. That is why, these opposition leaders are giving diverse reactions.
Some allege that Modi is trying to weaken state governments, some allege an RSS agenda behind this, while some say, Modi wants to bring presidential system of government. All such apprehensions are baseless. I have already disclosed the real reason. Opposition leaders feel that even if all of them join hands in a ‘One Nation, One Election’ battle, they cannot match Modi. They apprehend that Modi has opted for ‘One Nation, One Election’ because he may be having a big plan in his mind which he wants to implement. This fear and suspicion will prevent most of these parties from coming forward to support this decision.
Is Kejriwal’s release a worry for Congress?
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal came out of Tihar jail on Friday after 177 days. The Supreme Court granted him bail on conditions that he would not attend his office and sign any official file, nor shall he contact witnesses or speak about the liquor policy case in public. Coming out of prison, Kejriwal told cheering AAP supporters, “it is God which gave me strength and my resolve never weakened. Instead, my resolve multiplied 100 times.” The actual battle is going to be fought in the Haryana assembly elections. The court battles are over for the moment, but the case will linger on. Kejriwal’s release from jail will start a new battle on the political front. The fight is about perception, about creating a narrative.
Kejriwal claims that allegations of bribery made against him and his party in the Delhi liquor excise scam are false and the entire case is fake. This is the reason, he says, why he got bail from the highest court. BJP is going to tell the people that getting bail does not mean he has been acquitted and has been given a clean chit. BJP leaders point out to the SC verdict in which it has been said that his arrest by CBI was legally valid. AAP leaders allege, BJP misused ED and CBI to harass Kejriwal, but their plan has been foiled by the apex court. BJP leaders remind of the conditions under which Kejriwal cannot function as a Chief Minister. He cannot go to his office or sign official files.
There is a political twist to this case. While opposition parties expressed happiness over Kejriwal’s release from jail, Congress maintained silence. The reason: Haryana assembly elections, where talks of alliance between Congress and AAP failed over seat distribution. Congress leaders fear that if Kejriwal goes all out to garner votes for AAP in Haryana, its vote base may be hit. The fear is reflected in Congress stalwart Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s speeches, where he is telling Haryana voters that the battle is only between BJP and Congress, and people should not squander their votes by supporting any third party. In his Haryana campaign, Kejriwal is naturally going to take Congress to task, and this can cause problems for the party in the near future too. One must understand that AAP came to power in Delhi and Punjab by dislodging Congress.
From wrestling ring to political arena : Respect Vinesh’s decision
Wrestlers Vinesh Phogat and Bajrang Punia will now be seen in the political ring. On Friday, both of them joined the Congress. Vinesh Phogat will contest the Haryana Assembly election from Julana in Jind. Bajrang Punia was appointed the working chairman of All India Kisan Congress. Indications of joining Congress party were clear when both of them met Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. Both quit their jobs in Northern Railways hours before joining the Congress. Vinesh Phogat said it was the Congress which stood by the female wrestlers when they were fighting for their dignity.
She alleged, it was the BJP which orchestrated efforts to defame the wrestlers. Vinesh said, her fight against Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh and his cohorts in Wrestling Federation, for the honour of daughters will continue.
However, another female wrestler Sakshi Malik, who was part of the protest against Brij Bhushan, said both Vinesh and Bajrang Punia have taken personal decisions without consulting her, and it would have been better if they had stayed away from politics. Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, while speaking in Gonda, UP, said, he has been proved right and the entire nation now knows who was behind the Jantar Mantar wrestlers’ protest. Haryana BJP leader Anil Vij said, he always respected Vinesh for being a ‘champion daughter’, but now that she has opted to become “Congress’ daughter”, it is now clear Congress was behind the wrestlers’ protest. In reply, Bajrang Punia said, the wrestlers during their Jantar Mantar protest, had written letters to all women MPs of BJP seeking their support, but BJP, instead of extending support, defamed them.
I think, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh has no right to speak about Vinesh Phogat and Bajrang Punia. It was because of his questionable behaviour and threats that the wrestlers had to hit the streets to stage protest. Even after Brij Bhushan’s removal, the attitude of Wrestling Federation office-bearers has not changed. The wrestlers even went to court, but Brij Bhushan got them in a legal tangle. Ultimately, the wrestlers had to enter the political arena. I think, for the wrestlers, entering the political ring is less of a choice and more of a compulsion, because a heavyweight politician like Brij Bhushan did not leave them with any other options.
Both Bajrang Punia and Vinesh Phogat brought laurels to the nation in the field of wrestling, they won medals and their decision to join politics must be respected. The courage displayed by Vinesh in fighting for the honour of daughters, the manner in which she rose from the streets and reached the semi-finals at Paris Olympics, has made her a youth icon. If Vinesh wants to fulfill her political ambitions by contesting elections, it is her right. At least those leaders should keep their mouth shut, who had to lose their Lok Sabha tickets because of the female wrestlers’ protest.